Green Stock Watch: High energy prices are wind in cleantech sails

The double-edged events in Libya have caused a spike in global oil prices that will slow growth at home and abroad, however renewed high energy prices also invigorate renewable clean power companies.

The more you look into it, the more you will realize that oil is the most replaceable of all commodities, via natural gas, methanol, ethanol, new biogas / biofuel technologies and even solar, wind, geothermal, conservation and energy storage, directly and via equivalent energy displacement.

This is good news for green power stocks, however any with weak coffers should move quickly to raise cash now, for peace is just as likely to break out as war, if not more so. Money may soon be more expensive, so CFOs and CEOs, start working overtime to have sufficient money raised in the next two to three months, to last two to three years if possible.

A few years back I called the 2008 top in oil prices, predicted it coming and announced its arrival after oil crossed the $140 mark. We're getting into frothy territory again, and a new prediction is likely coming very soon. Not sure how high this one's gonna go, but we're climbing the peak now:

5 year chart Brent Crude oil price


Events and human psychology will determine this coming top, yet it already looks probable that support after the next oil price downturn will be around $56, up from $42 during the most recent bottom. THIS is a third higher, so when oil is next near a bottom and everyone is barking "disinflation", just compare the current bottom to the bottom in the previous cycle, and make your calculations from there.

If the oil price goes through 140 and makes a new high above 160, then 56 would be likely support for the next recession. If the oil price falters around or below the 140 mark, we have the dreaded double top and the downside may be even more severe, possibly to 24 at the nadir.

The bulls will tell you that $140 will become the new support level, converting former resistance, but don't believe them. At that price the global economy would crash, which is good for neither sellers nor buyers. Traders will take the market down about four or five times faster than they take it up, so don't be shy about starting to take long oil profits soon.

It also seems rather early to short, with Libya onstage, Iran in the wings, Bahrain and Yemen on side stages. As the ancient Chinese proverb says, "May you live in interesting times!"


Perhaps 2011 is another Sell in May and Stay Away year, or maybe things are moving even faster. Stay tuned.


Middle East democracy uprisings related links:

Middle East Revolutions 2.0; Egypt and Tunisia Timelines Dec 2010 to Feb 2011

Heroes and Martyrs of 2011 Tunisia and Egypt Revolutions

Canada urges Libya to show restraint with democracy protesters

Will Arab Awakening "Day of Anger" spike oil and metal markets?

Protests expected in Algeria, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria and Iran this Friday have the potential to cause a short-term spike in commodity prices, even though that some troubles can be reasonably predicted, and some would say are already priced in, though we've heard that before.

Here are a couple of links to follow short term and longer term movements in major commodities markets:

Oil price Brent Crude updated Bloomberg.com

Gold price live feed



Middle East democratic uprising links

List of countries with fake elections, rigged votes, false democracies

Egypt: Wael Ghonim deserves seat on Egypt's National Constitution Council

VICTORY!!! New Day Dawning in Egypt and Middle East

Egypt: How Facebook, YouTube, Google and Twitter revolutionized Egypt

Fareed Zakaria: Obama statement on Egypt unprecedented in recent decades

Blowin' In The Wind lyrics, by Bob Dylan

Blowin' In The Wind

Lyrics and Music by Bob Dylan

How many roads must a man walk down
Before you call him a man?
Yes, ’n’ how many seas must a white dove sail
Before she sleeps in the sand?
Yes, ’n’ how many times must the cannonballs fly
Before they’re forever banned?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind

How many years can a mountain exist
Before it’s washed to the sea?
Yes, ’n’ how many years can some people exist
Before they’re allowed to be free?
Yes, ’n’ how many times can a man turn his head
Pretending he just doesn’t see?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind

How many times must a man look up
Before he can see the sky?
Yes, ’n’ how many ears must one man have
Before he can hear people cry?
Yes, ’n’ how many deaths will it take till he knows
That too many people have died?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind